Take the latest opinion polls with a pinch of salt
Like James Forsyth, I am not overly worried about the recent opinion poll showing a fall in Tory support. But even if you take all the polls from recent months and put them together, it's not looking that great for the Tories. Whilst people may be sick of Labour, they are still unconvinced by the Tories. When you consider that they are going to need the second biggest parliamentary swing in history just to get a majority of 1, you realise what a mountain they still have to climb.
I agree with Janet Daley's analysis that first impressions last, and the Tories have left it pretty late in proving they are heavyweights. Even if the Tories work their socks off during the next six months, I think the best we can expect is a hung parliament.